Boom or bust?

Published On January 8, 2014 | By Joseph (Ken) | Economy
housing

Canada’s 2014 economic outlook: Boom or bust?

“While most economists are calling for growth comfortably above 2 per cent this year, following a disappointing level set in 2013, at least one economist is calling for the country to be worse off overall in 2014.

Economists are inherently positive because like Hollywood movies where the main star dies, bad economic news isn’t received well.

If you read my article Flawed economic forecasts may cost unionized employees you saw this graph:

forecast

The above graph is the Economic Council for BC making projections as the per cent growth for BC in 2013. The y-axis is the growth per cent projected and the x-axis is the date of the projection. As you can see, their projected growth progressively decreases as reality kicks in.

Nouriel Roubini, the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy, recently predicted Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.

Nouriel Roubini was correct in past predictions about the economy, in fact he was one of the few economists who accurately forecast the housing collapse and credit crunch in 2008 in the US.

What does he get for going against the grain and accurately predicting such significant negative event? The moniker of “Dr. Doom”.

“As it turned out, the housing market made a surprisingly strong recovery and banks racked up record profits in 2013.”

The worst thing you can be as an economist is wrong or… early in your projections.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” John Maynard Keynes

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About The Author

Joseph (Ken)
(Ken) is a Registered Public Accountant with over 25 years of public practice experience in the accounting profession. Ken specializes in accounting information systems, taxation and financial reporting.

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